How to Spot a Fake Black Friday Deal (in 30 Seconds)
By the Run Run Deals editorial team Published April 22, 2026 Updated May 7, 2026 6 min read
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If you spend any time on Amazon, Best Buy or Walmart between November 20 and December 1, you will see hundreds of products tagged "30% off," "50% off," or "Limited Time Deal." Most of those tags are real in the sense that the price did drop. About 40% of them are not real in the sense that mattered: the retailer raised the list price two to three weeks before, so the actual savings is much smaller than the badge suggests.
This is not a conspiracy theory. The Federal Trade Commission has issued warnings about this pattern. Consumer-reporting site Wirecutter has documented it across major retailers. The practice is widespread enough that anyone shopping the holiday season needs to check whether the discount is real before buying.
The four checks (none take more than 30 seconds)
Check 1: Compare to the rolling 30-day average
The single most reliable check. The "list price" on a product page is set by the retailer and can be changed at any time. The rolling 30-day average price is what real shoppers actually paid for that item over the previous month. If the current sale price is meaningfully below the 30-day average, the deal is real. If the sale price is roughly equal to the 30-day average, the discount is fake.
Free tools that show the 30-day average:
- Honey browser extension. Shows price history on most Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy listings. Free; owned by PayPal so the data is reasonably reliable.
- CamelCamelCamel. Amazon-specific. The most thorough price history tool for Amazon ASINs. Charts going back years.
- Keepa. More technical version of CamelCamelCamel, also Amazon-only. Free tier covers what most shoppers need.
- Our deal listings. We pre-filter against the 30-day average; if a product is on a Run Run Deals hub page, it has already passed this check.
Check 2: Cross-shop two retailers, not one
If a TV is on sale at Walmart for $499 with a "$200 off!" tag and the same TV is regularly $599 at Costco and Best Buy, the real discount is $100, not $200. The Walmart MSRP of $699 was set high specifically to make their sale look bigger.
The fastest check: open the same product on a competing retailer in another tab. If the competing price is similar to the "sale" price, the discount is exaggerated. If the competing price matches the "list" price the sale is being compared against, the discount is probably real.
Check 3: Look at the bundle math
"Save $300 with this laptop + bag + mouse bundle!" is a common tactic. Decompose: how much does the bag cost separately? Usually $20. How much does the mouse cost? Usually $15. The "$300 savings" is then a $35 bundle of accessories you may not need, attached to a laptop with a small actual discount.
Rule: if a bundle savings number is bigger than the cost of the standalone main item, something is off. Real bundles save 10 to 20% of the bundle's total list price; fake bundles claim to save more than the accessories are worth on their own.
Check 4: Watch for "while supplies last" without a stock count
Genuine doorbusters at Walmart, Best Buy and Target usually disclose the per-store stock count in the fine print ("limited to 10 per store" etc.). When a "deal" claims urgency without a real stock limit, the urgency is marketing rather than actual scarcity. The price will likely still be available three days later.
Conversely, products with disclosed low stock counts on day one (Best Buy doorbuster TVs, Costco Apple Watch bundles) are usually real. They sell out within hours, and the discount does not return at the same depth.
Categories where fake discounts are most common
- Mid-range and budget TVs. The "MSRP" on a $499 TCL is often a paper number; the same set sat at $499 in October. Checking the 30-day average is essential.
- Headphones and earbuds. List prices on Beats, Skullcandy and budget brand earbuds get raised before sales. Check the price history.
- Mattresses. Worst category for fake MSRPs. Almost every mattress sells at 25 to 50% "off" year-round; the actual selling price barely moves. Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day and Black Friday are the only meaningful price drops.
- Toys. "$30 off!" on toys is often a $5 to $10 real discount with the rest from MSRP inflation in October.
- Bundle laptops. Decompose every laptop bundle. Standalone is usually cheaper if you do not need the included accessories.
Categories where the discounts are usually real
- Apple products. Apple maintains tight control of MSRP. When a retailer (especially Costco or Best Buy) discounts Apple, the discount is almost always real.
- Premium OLED TVs. The list prices on LG C-series, Sony Bravia OLED, and Samsung S95 are roughly accurate; the Black Friday discounts on these tend to be genuine.
- Major appliances at Lowes and Home Depot. Floor model and open-box pricing reflects real discounting. The "this week only" tags are largely accurate.
- Costco overall. Their pricing model does not allow much room for fake MSRPs; what you see on a Costco price tag is generally accurate.
One more thing — the post-sale price drop check
If you buy something on Black Friday and it drops further on Cyber Monday, most retailers will refund the difference if you ask within 7 days. This is rarely advertised. Best Buy, Walmart, Target and Amazon all honor this informally; you contact customer service via chat or call, mention the price drop, and the refund typically processes within 24 hours. Success rate is roughly 70 to 80%.
